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Tuesday, 10 December 2013

An Introduction - Stock Market Analysis

By Frank Miller


When it comes to trading stocks, it's important to understand how to understand the principles of stock market analysis so you can decide which stocks to buy or sell for your portfolio, such as stocks belonging to the S&P 500, which contains some of the most popular stocks in the US from large businesses that trade on both of the US stock market exchanges. Without that knowledge, you could lose thousands of dollars and be totally lost in the system.

My experience as an OTC market maker gives me a unique perspective on these types of stock market trading and stock market crashes. Imagine being a professional stock trader, a market maker. You have a certain amount of capital. If you do are loaded up with inventory and do not anticipate a stock market crash like the one we just had, you are doomed. If you have, say, $1 million in inventory, to pick a round number, and you are 80% long, in a 15% market decline, you lose on average $120,000 in a matter of weeks. If you had to repay your losses, you were not a happy stock trading professional.

Many individuals and entities trade in the stock market. Small investors, day traders who square up their transactions on the same day, investment/financial companies, banks, hedge funds, individuals with a high net worth, institutions, mutual funds - all are involved in stock market trading. These individuals and entities place their buy or sell orders through a market intermediary, called the stockbroker. Majority of the transactions are routed through a network of computers that execute orders in a matter of seconds.

In the stock market, you can buy and sell the stocks you own. Besides this, there are several strategies such as short-selling, which means you do not own the stock, but sell it nevertheless (by borrowing it from your broker at a fee) because you feel its price is going to drop - and when the price does drop, you buy it back. Plus, you can buy or sell stocks at a future date if you trade in the derivatives market. Then, you can also indulge in margin buying, which in simple terms means you borrow money to buy stocks, thereby exposing yourself to debt.

When it comes to tracking stocks one of the methods is through charts and patterns. A system of bar charts is normally used that represent periods of time (like daily, weekly, etc). The top of this chart for stock market analysis would list the high price while the smaller bar chart to the right lists the opening and the other one lists the closing prices. Another chart sometimes used is called a candlestick chart. It uses a slightly different system of markings to show the highs and lows and prices of the stock it is following. It also uses a color system, with red or black if the stock's closing cost was lower than the one prior to this one or white and green if it was more.

One more observation. If you can figure this out, let me know. The best stocks I have found have been in bear markets. True, you could buy just about anything in a bull market and be up, but the highest percentage gains in my book have been in bad markets. Not terrible markets, bad markets. I have never figured out why.




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