Exchange-Traded Funds (ETF, for short) achieved a great popularity in the financial world a little over a decade ago, though they were first introduced in the 1990s. They have something of an Index Fund quality to them.
Index Funds were premised on John C. Bogle's recognition that most fund managers were not actually able to beat the market on a consistent basis. Once their fees were taken into account, from the perspective of the financial end-consumer, the idea of beating the market was sheer folly.
There's some irony in that turn of phrase, as "Bolge's folly" was the term of derision used to dismiss his ideas by the Wall Street crowd. Bogle was, though, to have the last laugh: his philosophy, initially implemented through funds established to track the S&P 500, at minimal-to-no fees, proved to be a big time winner.
Today's ETF represent an attempt to learn these lessons of the Index Funds lessons, supplemented by the further bonus that they were - unlike the original Indexed Funds - very inexpensive to trade. In some cases, ETF can be traded commission-free. Additionally, not being indexed, these ETF can be considerably cheaper, since the lack of ongoing management reduces considerably potential transaction costs.
Some of the big news in ETF these days is the prospect of launching publicly traded Bitcoin ETF. The effort receiving the biggest spotlight in this regard has been the initiatives undertaken by the Winklevoss twins.
These twin brothers have been notorious in popular culture for their struggle with Mark Zuckerberg over control of the FaceBook social media site. Less widely known is that the Winklevoss twins have been big time early adopters of Bitcoin. Estimates on the extent of their holdings of Bitcoin have been in the area of $11 million.
Permission to establish a publicly traded Bitcoin ETF though must be provided by financial regulators. And the effort is already being pooh-poohed by bigwigs in the industry, such as Knight Capital managing director Reggie Browne.
It is true, of course, with the extreme volatility of Bitcoin of late, such efforts would seem to run counter to the original Index Fund spirit of the early ETF tradition. This might though be a case of not seeing the trees for the forest (or the forest for the trees, perhaps).
Right off the bat, sweeping claims about the viability of Bitcoin on the ETF market has to be tempered with the realization that in fact such trading opportunities already exist. SecondMarket offers a private Bitcoin Investment Trust (BIT, for short, get it?). BIT is modeled on a well established gold ETF. And, with its $25k minimum investment, it is humming right along, according to its creator, the SecondMarket CEO: the close of 2013 finds it holding $65 million.
Obviously, then, to claim, as Browne does, that the volatility of potential Bitcoin ETF wouldn't be attractive to potential ETF investors does seem to be assuming a bit too much. There seems to me, though, to be an even more essential point that is too easily overlooked in all of this. That point is simply this: as a currency Bitcoin's raison d'etre is to be a medium of exchange. It may provide an investment opportunity, but the outcome of such investments is ultimately irrelevant to its fate.
Of course I'm not saying that anyone isn't perfectly entitled to wager on the success (or failure) of any product, including a new currency. Speculators and short sellers alike are a perfectly legitimate and necessary part of a dynamic and free market. The confusion, and the misguidance to which it may give rise, is that treating Bitcoin as an investment opportunity - akin to gold, for instance - fails to take account that, unlike gold, it is designed specifically as an alternate currency. Its ultimate fate lies in its capacity to serve consumer needs in that regard.
As with any product introduced onto the market to meet specific consumer demands, the features and benefits which will determine its fate can only be revealed by customer testing in the fullness of time. The notorious Bitcoin volatility the last while though has been a function of financial, rather than monetary, ambivalence. It seems to this author that one of two possibilities lie ahead of us.
Bitcoin pile What would an ETF Mean for Your Bitcoin Profit Calculator? Either, Bitcoin will somehow (and there are many issues to consider here) catch on and become widely used around the world - whether sanctioned by nation-states or not. Or, it will be judged by the consuming public (consumers of currency, you understand) to not provide enough benefits over so-called sovereign currencies, and will lapse into disuse.
If the former happens, the holdings of the currency will be so extensive (and exempt from the inflationary pressures of fiat currencies) that financial hiccups will cease to cause the kinds of fluctuations recently observed. If that is the result, Bitcoin ETF will indeed become the kind of secure, indexed funds which were the original inspiration behind ETF in general.
On the other hand, should we see the collapse of the currency, the truth is that it is those who bought into the currency, not for the virtues of its monetary features, but to gather its hoped for financial windfalls, that will be most hurt in the process. The big losers would be the speculators. And speculation offers the prospect of big rewards, because it presents the danger of high risk.
To be clear, I'm not suggesting that anyone feverishly convinced of Bitcoin's long term future should be discouraged from taking advantage of their knowledge of the product or their conviction in its viability to profit through investment in it. If however ones investment is merely an expression of excitement at rocketing exchange rates: what goes up, must come down. You know the risk you're taking.
Bitcoin ETF are an intriguing development and personally I'll be keeping a close eye on how that financial market evolves. Regardless of their fortunes, though, ETF in the end will really reveal very little about the prospects of Bitcoin as a currency. Many people will make and lose lots of money along the way, but the story of Bitcoin will be told, not in the financial markets, but in the consumer markets.
Index Funds were premised on John C. Bogle's recognition that most fund managers were not actually able to beat the market on a consistent basis. Once their fees were taken into account, from the perspective of the financial end-consumer, the idea of beating the market was sheer folly.
There's some irony in that turn of phrase, as "Bolge's folly" was the term of derision used to dismiss his ideas by the Wall Street crowd. Bogle was, though, to have the last laugh: his philosophy, initially implemented through funds established to track the S&P 500, at minimal-to-no fees, proved to be a big time winner.
Today's ETF represent an attempt to learn these lessons of the Index Funds lessons, supplemented by the further bonus that they were - unlike the original Indexed Funds - very inexpensive to trade. In some cases, ETF can be traded commission-free. Additionally, not being indexed, these ETF can be considerably cheaper, since the lack of ongoing management reduces considerably potential transaction costs.
Some of the big news in ETF these days is the prospect of launching publicly traded Bitcoin ETF. The effort receiving the biggest spotlight in this regard has been the initiatives undertaken by the Winklevoss twins.
These twin brothers have been notorious in popular culture for their struggle with Mark Zuckerberg over control of the FaceBook social media site. Less widely known is that the Winklevoss twins have been big time early adopters of Bitcoin. Estimates on the extent of their holdings of Bitcoin have been in the area of $11 million.
Permission to establish a publicly traded Bitcoin ETF though must be provided by financial regulators. And the effort is already being pooh-poohed by bigwigs in the industry, such as Knight Capital managing director Reggie Browne.
It is true, of course, with the extreme volatility of Bitcoin of late, such efforts would seem to run counter to the original Index Fund spirit of the early ETF tradition. This might though be a case of not seeing the trees for the forest (or the forest for the trees, perhaps).
Right off the bat, sweeping claims about the viability of Bitcoin on the ETF market has to be tempered with the realization that in fact such trading opportunities already exist. SecondMarket offers a private Bitcoin Investment Trust (BIT, for short, get it?). BIT is modeled on a well established gold ETF. And, with its $25k minimum investment, it is humming right along, according to its creator, the SecondMarket CEO: the close of 2013 finds it holding $65 million.
Obviously, then, to claim, as Browne does, that the volatility of potential Bitcoin ETF wouldn't be attractive to potential ETF investors does seem to be assuming a bit too much. There seems to me, though, to be an even more essential point that is too easily overlooked in all of this. That point is simply this: as a currency Bitcoin's raison d'etre is to be a medium of exchange. It may provide an investment opportunity, but the outcome of such investments is ultimately irrelevant to its fate.
Of course I'm not saying that anyone isn't perfectly entitled to wager on the success (or failure) of any product, including a new currency. Speculators and short sellers alike are a perfectly legitimate and necessary part of a dynamic and free market. The confusion, and the misguidance to which it may give rise, is that treating Bitcoin as an investment opportunity - akin to gold, for instance - fails to take account that, unlike gold, it is designed specifically as an alternate currency. Its ultimate fate lies in its capacity to serve consumer needs in that regard.
As with any product introduced onto the market to meet specific consumer demands, the features and benefits which will determine its fate can only be revealed by customer testing in the fullness of time. The notorious Bitcoin volatility the last while though has been a function of financial, rather than monetary, ambivalence. It seems to this author that one of two possibilities lie ahead of us.
Bitcoin pile What would an ETF Mean for Your Bitcoin Profit Calculator? Either, Bitcoin will somehow (and there are many issues to consider here) catch on and become widely used around the world - whether sanctioned by nation-states or not. Or, it will be judged by the consuming public (consumers of currency, you understand) to not provide enough benefits over so-called sovereign currencies, and will lapse into disuse.
If the former happens, the holdings of the currency will be so extensive (and exempt from the inflationary pressures of fiat currencies) that financial hiccups will cease to cause the kinds of fluctuations recently observed. If that is the result, Bitcoin ETF will indeed become the kind of secure, indexed funds which were the original inspiration behind ETF in general.
On the other hand, should we see the collapse of the currency, the truth is that it is those who bought into the currency, not for the virtues of its monetary features, but to gather its hoped for financial windfalls, that will be most hurt in the process. The big losers would be the speculators. And speculation offers the prospect of big rewards, because it presents the danger of high risk.
To be clear, I'm not suggesting that anyone feverishly convinced of Bitcoin's long term future should be discouraged from taking advantage of their knowledge of the product or their conviction in its viability to profit through investment in it. If however ones investment is merely an expression of excitement at rocketing exchange rates: what goes up, must come down. You know the risk you're taking.
Bitcoin ETF are an intriguing development and personally I'll be keeping a close eye on how that financial market evolves. Regardless of their fortunes, though, ETF in the end will really reveal very little about the prospects of Bitcoin as a currency. Many people will make and lose lots of money along the way, but the story of Bitcoin will be told, not in the financial markets, but in the consumer markets.
About the Author:
To keep track of the wild ride of Bitcoin, check in regularly on our Bitcoin Profit Calculator . Wallace Eddington is staff writer at our blog, providing a practical and unique treatment of monetary and financial issues related to Bitcoin. His recent post elaborating the role of Bitcoin address and private key is a must read for those who want to take advantage of the exciting new digital currency.
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